Posted by The Food Section on November 09, 2009 at 13:50:56:
Joseph Baum & Michael Whiteman Co. Inc.
International Restaurant Consultants
www.baumwhiteman.com
CONSULTANTS PREDICT 13 RESTAURANT AND HOTEL
FOOD AND DINING TRENDS FOR 2010
Joseph Baum & Michael Whiteman Co. creates high-profile restaurants
around the world for hotels, restaurant companies, major museums and other consumer
destinations. Based in New York, their projects include the late Windows on the World
and the magical Rainbow Room, Equinox in Singapore, the world’s first food courts, and
five three-star restaurants in New York, and numerous first-class hotels. Their predictions
follow …
#1 NEW PRIORITIES FOR BEATEN-UP CONSUMERS: Too many restaurant and
hotel execs are grappling with pre-recession consumer issues, while people today are
expressing entirely new – and more complex -- sets of concerns. These concerns might
tamp down consumer spending for another five years – and are difficult for hotel and
restaurant professionals to deal with. Why? Because what worries people today no
longer reflects abstract and idealistic pre-recession issues. Now people are focusing
inward. Their concerns are personal, emotional and ethical. For example:
NEXT YEAR’S HOT BUTTONS
Economic survival
Reassurance
Intimacy & friendship
Feeding my knowledge
Feeding my emotions
Artisan, hand-made
Neighborhood, local
Authentic, real
Comfort & safety
Hotel and restaurant people who make a big deal about powering their trucks with
used frying fat, or switching to green detergent, or printing menus on recycled paper
may be addressing the wrong issues. Millions of people are in danger of losing their
homes and unemployment is still rising; people are plain scared … and they’re looking
for a “safe harbor.” So hotels and restaurants should be luring these hunkered down
consumers from their psychological storm cellars by (and we’re being metaphoric here)
replicating the “campfire experience” – building emotional ties and connecting to
communities. They need to audit their businesses based on the hot-buttons listed
above … because, we believe, these issues will remain on the table for years to come.
#2 PUTTING FOCUS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MENU … because that’s where
the emotional resonance is (see item #1, above). Look for more creative snacky things,
more small plates, more portion options … things sized for one, for two, for a crowd.
This isn’t just a “small plates phenomenon” … because it isn’t about the size of the
plate: Sharing is the key … sharing responds to consumers’ needs for comfort and
safety, for intimacy and friendship. In 2010, smart operators will figure out how to
translate this to the right side of the menu – where main courses are, and if you need
an example of how it works, think of Thanksgiving dinner – a “communal” main
course for sharing and lots of go-withs.
#3 UPSCALING THE DOWNSCALE: No question that consumers are trading down.
Steakhouse sales slipped 25%-30% since last year, and $100 bottles of wine gather
dust. Predictably, hamburger and hot dog sales are on the rise but not because
they’re cheap. What’s important is that consumers are using these vehicles as trade-up
treats! That’s what’s behind the explosion of “gourmet” hamburgers smothered in the
likes of manchego cheese and Iberian ham; or fanciful hot dogs served with goat
cheese and guacamole; or french fries revved up with parmesan cheese and truffle oil.
Consumers are trading down in order to trade up! That explains why operators are
successfully playing one-upmanship with these items, why they’re labeling them like
categories of steak: brisket burgers, short rib burgers, grass-fed burgers. It’s why
lamb burgers, which you couldn’t give away three years ago, are selling. It’s why you
find hand-made artisan hot dogs and Kobe dogs smothered in home-made relishes
and condiments (Show Dogs, San Francisco; Bark, Brooklyn; Hot Doug’s, Chicago).
Danger: At low price points, there’s little economic risk in experimenting; but when
people finally have more money in their pockets, will they forsake these humble things
and rush back to steaks and chops?
#4 FRESH = LOCAL = HAND-MADE = SAFER = BETTER
The words “organic” and “natural” are so diluted (polluted, actually) by big-brand food
companies that they’re being replaced in consumers’ minds by “fresh” and “local” and
“hand-made.” That’s why farmers markets are catching on everywhere even though
food there costs more than at chain retailers: People are looking for edibles they can
trust, and for food communities that stand personally behind their products.
Restaurants and hotels are spotlighting house-made or locally-made bread, artisancured
salami, chef-pickled vegetables, locally- butchered beef, honey from nearby
hives, food purchased from regional farms … all these theoretically reflecting
sustainability and helping local farmers and being better for the environment. They
connote reassurance and community values (see #1, above) … which is why chefs are
planting their own vegetable gardens, even on roofs of high-rise hotels. Mrs. Obama
digging a vegetable patch at the White House was more than a photo op … it was a
message that’s been recognized by smart restaurateurs.
#5 FRIED CHICKEN IS THE NEW PORK BELLY: Fed up with globs of pig fat from
undercooked pork belly? Say hello new-fangled fried chicken -- crisped in all sorts of
inventive ways by lowly diner cooks and exalted chefs alike. Ahead of the curve:
Korean fried chicken, invisibly coated, amazingly flavorful and fried twice for ultracrunch,
moving out of traditional Korean-towns into mainstream neighborhoods.
Global players from Southeast Asia are eyeing the US market, their birds fragrant with
lemongrass, fish sauce and warm spices. Lots of chicken is emerging from Latino
neighborhoods, too – Pollos Frisby from Colombia, Pollo Campero from Guatemala –
zinged up with citrus juices, garlic and regional spices. Some exalted chefs are toying
with highly complex formulas from Malaysia (where fried birds are called ayam goring)
and the Med Rim (think ras el hanout). And then there are Monday night chicken
dinners at Thomas Keller’s Ad Hoc in Yountville, in Napa Valley, and at Andrew
Carmellini’s Locada Verde in New York. People fight for a table at Momofuku Noodle
Bar in New York, where you’ll get two chickens (one southern fried, the other a thricefried
Korean rendition) but even at a hundred buck a pop for your group, tables are
perpetually sold out. Poor KFC: Just when they introduce their lower-fat additiveladen
“grilled” chicken breast, then the fried version becomes gastronomically trendy.
#6 PUTTING IN “GOOD” ADDITIVES INSTEAD OF TAKING OUT NASTY ONES:
After years of purging their food of such “nasties” as transfats and other greases,
preservatives, sodium (still work to do there), and artificial flavors and colors … food
companies now are scrambling for additives that make you healthier and more
beautiful. Savvy restaurateurs ought to take note of shenanigans like adding omega-3
and plant sterols to breads to alleviate stress and lower cholesterol; antioxidants and
probiotics to goose your immune system; vitamins to already adulterated bottled
water; collagen to dried fruit (you can’t make this up) for women sidestepping the
ravages of aging; and various unpronounceables that blunt your appetite so you’ll
(maybe) lose weight. One soda supplier adds kava extract for alcoholic high without
the alcohol. Soon, governments here and in Europe will clamp down on outrageous
health claims. Meanwhile watch bartenders (err, mixologists) get into the act by
concocting good-for-you cocktails with “enhanced” beverages -- on the theory that you
can drink yourself into good health and become beautiful while getting sloshed.
Guanara, acai, goji, green tea, hibiscus, acerola are some beverage buzzwords. Similar
ingredients are creeping into fast food beverages, too. Move over, dieticians; looking
good rises to the top of the menu. Followed, soon, by an emphasis on “brain health.”
No restaurant can overtly put this sort of stuff on a menu (“try our anti-oxidant
cabernet” won’t fly), so new menu language will have to emerge.
#7 THEY LAUGHED WHEN WE SAID “TONGUE”: Last year, some bloggers said
we’d gone bonkers by predicting that tongue – beef and veal – would be hot in 2009.
Well … here’s the Offal Truth: For 2010, it’ll be tongue (including lamb) and oxtail
along with beef and pork cheeks, chicken gizzards, tripe, and other innards and odd
parts. “In a pig’s ear,” you say? That, too, along with trotters. Savvy chefs are using
these odd parts to offset downsized portions of expensive steaks and chops. You
interleave a few slices of strip steak with slices of smoked tongue; you top a petit filet
mignon with a nugget of wine-braised beef cheek; you layer some oxtail ravioli over a
half-size portion of New York strip and … bingo! … chefs create added interest and eye
candy while lowering their food costs.
#8 LOSING CONTROL OVER LANGUAGE: Hotels and restaurants no longer control
what’s said about them … or who says it. The old experts … travel and food
journalists … are disappearing, along with their newspapers and magazines, so the
old Voices of Authority who reliably carried restaurants’ and hotels’ marketing
messages and images (word-heavy Gourmet magazine, for example) are an endangered
species. Instead, authority is dispersed among the Instant Opinion Makers: bloggers,
texters, twitterers, facebookers, yelpers (many pure shillsters) – who broadcast “buzz”
and bad news to a million gullible people in the blink of an eye. So we’re swapping
good gastro-journalism for dubious opinionating. Amidst this electronic takeover, a
local restaurant’s reputation can trump a national brand’s … so we’re seeing a leveling
of the playing field between big chains and clever independent operators. Some mobile
applications can locate restaurants all around where you’re standing at this very
moment, along with reviews, menus and other essential data. A New York startup
plans to help operators fight back against negative reviews with text-like messages to
PDA subscribers (free beer tomorrow!; two tables open at 8 p.m.!). Next year’s
marketing and PR mavens will be experts at getting operators closer to their customers
everywhere and any time, using all sorts of social networks … and bypassing the
former journalistic gatekeepers.
#9 SWEET TO BITTER TO TART: A decade or so back, American palates made a
profound shift from sweet to bitter – which explains the rise of strong coffee, dark
chocolate, broccoli rabb, brussels sprouts and other bitter food. There’s been another,
quieter shift, from sweet-sweet to tart-sweet. That’s why chefs are now pickling their
own vegetables to serve with newly trendy rich and fatty meats (see Item #6 above).
You’ll find pickled veggies inserted into Vietnamese banh mi sandwiches (another
trend moving inward from the coasts). You’ll see more pickled shallots, leeks or ramps
atop steak, instead of fatty onion rings. You’ll get it in the sour-salty flavor profiles of
increasingly trendy Southeast Asian cookery. You’ll find kids getting pucker-mouth as
they opt for stunningly sour candies. It explains why classic French cookery, based
on excesses of butter and cream, is in decline because it puts taste buds into snooze
mode. What makes this important is that we’re all getting older and need more zing in
our food; a rebalancing of sour-salty-sweet therefore assumes growing relevance on
restaurant menus in 2010.
#10 MENU CHURN: A crummy economy and declining consumer traffic forces
restaurants to poach each other customers by stealing competitors’ top menu items.
This happens all the time in a copycat industry, but it has accelerated. Fast food
chains are adding up-priced imitations of gourmet burgers. Pizza chains are suddenly
becoming pasta, sandwich and chicken wings specialists. Specialty juice chains fight
back by adding pizzas and flatbreads. Look for juice bars and smoothie bars in fast
food and fast-cas outlets in 2010. Fast-casual chains are figuring out how to
incorporate menu winners from sit-down restaurants – including testing alcoholic
beverages. Everyone’s adding snacks and signature beverages and energy drinks,
hoping to capture between-meal business. Cupcakes are popping up in so many
places that this trend is sure to self-destruct. And don’t get us started about the
coffee wars! The danger: As menus become increasingly generic, people will forget
what a restaurant stands for. Ironic … because big hotel chains are doing everything
they can to reinforce their specific “brand experience” rather than being all things to
all people.
#11 MEET YOU AT THE SUPERMARKET: The frequency of meals eaten away from
home was sliding even before the global economic collapse – in large part because
fewer women are working -- but accelerating numbers of consumers are re-discovering
their dining room tables. (That’s why steak sales have rocketed in supermarkets.)
Restaurant chains hope to replace lost in-store business by getting their brands onto
those tables. They’re doing this by pasting their logos onto supermarket products.
Chains as varied as Burger King, P.F. Chang, Cheesecake Factory and TGIFriday’s
have moved into the world of retail food as they seek new channels of distribution.
Some analysts worry that each meal’s migration from restaurant to a food store
eliminates sales of profitable side orders and beverages, and erodes the ability to pay
the rent on expensive restaurant real estate. And what happens to the “brand
experience” (see Item #10)?
#12 CATERING TO KIDS: It’s no accident that kids’ menus are popping up on
chain restaurants: The recession did it. Such chains as P.F. Chang and Cheesecake
Factory added children’s menus this past summer, with Chipotle Grill following suit.
Denny’s has swapped some of its fat and calorie bombs for vegetables and yogurt.
They all frightened that cash-strapped families are staying home in droves (see #11),
so they’re inviting folks to bring the kids. Look for more restaurants and hotels
offering cooking classes for youngsters following the success of Eat Fresh Food:
Awesome Recipes for Teenage Chefs … a new healthful cookbook by Rozanne Gold.
“When kids cook, entire families eat better,” says Gold. The health issue won’t go
away now that the Feds turned the spotlight on such nonsense as Froot Loops,
Hellman’s mayonnaise and Breyer’s ice cream being marketed under the (now
disgraced) “Smart Choice” banner; and after researchers discovered that cereals
marketed directly to children have 85 percent more sugar, 65 percent less fiber, and
60 percent more sodium than cereals marketed to adults. Look for more kids-eat-free
restaurant promotions, more emphasis on healthful children’s menus, and more
“adult” things for kids to eat along with their food-savvy parents.
BUZZWORDS FOR 2010: Authentic Neapolitan pizza. Lamb riblets. Too many food
trucks, not enough curb space. Latino street food. Farmed trout creeps up on farmed
salmon. Curry- and Indian-spiced fried chicken. Vietnamese sandwiches (bahn mi).
Gelati. Global comfort food. Artisan hot dogs. Made-to-order ice cream. Chefs turned
butchers. Casual comfort. Touch-screen kiosks and home delivery in fast food outlets.
Latino street food. Wood oven cooking. More energy drinks and adulterated waters.
Mood food. Backyard and rooftop bee hives. Stevia. Kimchee. Urban farms. Griddled
burgers. Free food. House-made everything, especially in sandwiches.
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